I Kid You Not: reviewing last year's sleepers and snoozers

I said Jason Campbell would have a good season last year. Well, I got other things right, anyway.

It takes a big man to admit when he’s wrong.
But I happen to be of the opinion that it takes an even bigger man to publish an article outlining some of the ways in which he was wrong, as long as such an article was really just part of an elaborate plan to also point out some of the ways in which he was exceedingly right, and therefore awesome.
I am talking, of course, about my fantasy football sleepers and snoozers predictions from last year, an article highlighting some of the players I thought you should target in your draft and others I thought you should avoid.
I went into some detail about why I thought what I thought about each player, and backed it up to some degree by drafting my two fantasy football teams last season with those thoughts in mind.
This year, I figured it could be fun to look back and see how my predictions panned out. It turns out I was right on some, wrong on some, and pretty close on the rest—which is about average for any of the national fantasy football writers who get paid to dissect football statistics and then graciously walk us through the results of their predictions from the past year.
We’ll look at what I said, whether or not it came true, and what the overall result of the prediction was. And for the specific numbers (points, rankings, etc.) I’m going by my ESPN.com fantasy football leagues, which have 12 teams each but only have a couple of minor variations from standard scoring.
So let’s get started—here are my sleepers and snoozers from last year, and the results of their fantasy football seasons.

Sleepers
Quarterbacks
Jason Campbell, Oakland Raiders
I predicted: He’d be better than Jamarcus Russell (true), he’d be accurate (kind of true), that the Raiders would not win the Super Bowl (definitely true) and that he’d put up solid numbers (not entirely true).
He finished the season ranked as the No. 25 quarterback in scoring with 146 points (nearly 200 behind No. 1 QB Tom Brady’s 343) and got benched in favor of Bruce Gradkowski—but in the 11 games he started and finished, he averaged almost 13.3 points per game, which would have made him the No. 15 QB for the season. Not great, but not terrible.
Result: Close, but no cigar

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
I predicted: We would see more than just glimpses of his tremendous ability (true) and that his toughness would get him through a healthy season (not true). Also, that he wouldn’t win the MVP (true) but that you could do a lot worse in the late rounds (definitely true).
He finished in a tie with Rex Grossman as the No. 37 QB last season, but it was definitely due to injury. He only played in three games last year because of a shoulder injury, but in the two he completed, he scored 31 and 26 points against the Redskins and Jets, respectively.
Result: Would have been right if he’d been healthy. And somewhere, Chad Pennington is nodding sadly.

Running Backs
Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins
I predicted: That I’m biased when it comes to Miami Dolphins players (oh heavens yes that’s true), that Brown had a chance of getting hurt during the season (he played in all but one game) and that he’d be a better pick in the fourth round than Justin Forsett (yep) or Jerome Harrison (double yep).
Brown was the No.31-ranked RB in the league last year with 128.5 points, well short of No. 1 Arian Foster’s 356. Brown did have big weeks against the Bills in week one (15 points), the Ravens in week nine (17.5 points) and the Bills again in week 15 (9.5 points), but he was frustratingly inconsistent, and was summarily released in the off-season. He’ll be a nice backup for LeSean McCoy in Philadelphia this year, but I doubt he’ll have much fantasy relevance.
Result: Not really even close on this one. Allegiance to a team is a dangerous thing in fantasy sports.

Cadillac Williams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I predicted: Nobody on the Tampa offense would be great (wrong-o), that Caddy would show some promise when he made it on the field (correct, but he didn’t get much time) and that nobody had ever made a car-related joke when talking about a guy with the nickname “Cadillac” (pretty sure that one’s still good).
He finished in the top 40 running backs, but his name falls into the space between fellow backups C.J. Spiller and Jason Snelling, so he really wasn’t worth drafting. Meanwhile, rookie LeGarrette Blount came out of nowhere to become another one of the exciting young stars on the Buccaneer offense, essentially relegating Cadillac to the garage (didn’t see that one coming, did you?).
Result: Yeah, let’s just move on.

Wide Receivers
Chris Chambers, Kansas City Chiefs
I predicted: That there wouldn’t be much excitement from the Chiefs’ offense (false), the receivers would struggle (to the tune of Dwayne Bowe finishing as the No. 3 WR in the league—safe to say I missed that one), and that Chambers would get his fair share of chances in the passing game (fair is a relative term, so—oh who am I kidding, I was way off).
Chambers didn’t even make it into the top 100 receivers last year, so it’s safe to say that he shouldn’t have even sniffed a chance at your starting lineup.
Result: I apologize profusely.

Josh Morgan, San Francisco 49ers
I predicted: Pretty much the same things I said about Chambers (none of which came true) and I implied that Morgan’s quarterback, Alex Smith, would be better since he actually played in college (he did play in college, unlike Kansas City quarterback Matt Cassel—but Cassel definitely outplayed Smith last year).
Morgan finished with a grand total of 98 fantasy points, a far cry from No. 1 WR Roddy White and his 256.
Result: So much for going with my gut feelings.

Derrick Mason, Baltimore Ravens
I predicted: That everybody would be “all ga-ga” for Mason’s teammate, Anquan Boldin (true), but that Mason would actually get more open looks because of all the attention on the offense’s other stars (kind of true). Also, that he would be a great pick in the sixth of seventh round (definitely true).
Mason was decent—like I said then, not a top WR or anything, but a guy you could use with a solid degree of confidence. He finished with 148.5 points, good for the No. 32 WR spot, just one behind Boldin (who finished with 151 points).
Result: Things are starting to pick up—I think that one counts as a “correct” prediction.

Tight End
Jermichael Finley, Green Bay Packers
I predicted: That I agreed with most experts on Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers having a monster year (understatement of the year), and that Finley would be the recipient of lots of touchdowns (
Finley battled a few injuries, but for the most part, he was nearly unstoppable. The Packers put up one of the best statistical seasons on offense and hoisted the Lombardi Trophy when all was said and done. Finley played a key role and made lots of fantasy owners very happy in the process.
Result: Nailed it.

Snoozers
Quarterback
Donovan McNabb, Washington Redskins
I predicted: That he would struggle in a new system with a new team (correct) and that he’d end up with a decent season, but nothing to write home about (also correct).
McNabb finished as the No. 23-ranked QB last year, totaling 160 points, which was six fewer points than the incomparable Jon Kitna. That’s never a good sign.
Result: Right on the money.

Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals
I predicted: Despite how great the Cincinnati offense looked on paper going into the season, I said Palmer would struggle against tough defenses like Pittsburgh and Baltimore (true) and that the overall health of the team would suffer because of the hotshot wide receivers he had to deal with (also true).
Palmer finished as the No. 12 QB with 246 points, behind Matt Cassel but ahead of Joe Flacco. He was decent, but struggled mightily against the Ravens (five points), the Jets (four points), the Steelers (four points again) and the Browns of all teams (eight points). When the season ended, he made it clear that he no longer wished to play for the Bengals, so he followed through on his threat to retire when the team refused to trade or release him. Somewhere, Terrell Owens is doing situps in his driveway and nodding proudly.
Result: Decent doesn’t win championships, so we’re counting this one correct.

Running Back
C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills
I predicted: People, especially in the greater Buffalo area, would be excited about Spiller’s speed (and they were), but Spiller himself would have trouble getting on the field with Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson ahead of him on the depth chart (true, even after Lynch got traded to Seattle).
Spiller showed that he’s talented, but couldn’t do anything special enough to unseat Jackson, the team’s rushing leader from the prior season. His 109 fantasy points ranked him No. 38, ahead of the aforementioned Cadillac Williams and just behind fellow backup Tim Hightower.
Result: Correct, with bonus points for giving Bills fans one more reason to feel sad.

Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts
I predicted: His age, the competition of a younger back and the lack of rushing attempts included in the Indianapolis attack would leave him without much to work with (somewhat true).
Addai started strong, with nine points or more in five of his first six games (including a 20-point performance against Jacksonville), but suffered a neck injury that kept him off the field for eight weeks. His average for the eight games he did play was a reasonable 10.9 points, but with the nagging injuries, the lack of breakaway speed and the pass-heavy offense he toils in, he didn’t have much upside.
Result: The long absence due to injury left us with a small sample size, but that alone kind of proves what I was getting at. We’ll call it mostly correct.

Wide Receiver
Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati Bengals
I predicted: Much of the same as what I predicted for his quarterback, Carson Palmer, along with Ochocinco’s advanced age, narcissism and easily frustrated nature combining to make it a rough year for the former Mr. Johnson (all true).
Ochocinco looked like he’d rather be playing soccer, or learning how to dance, or riding a rodeo bull—all things he found time to do during the lockout this year, rather than, you know, practicing football—than having to gator-arm another floater from Palmer on a crossing pattern. His 135.5 points placed him at No. 38 for the WR position, while his teammate, Terrell Owens, posted a very respectable 188 points, good for the No. 16 spot.
Result: Apparently guys who change their last names to match their jersey numbers don’t think ahead very much. Also, I got this one exactly right.

Miles Austin, Dallas Cowboys
I predicted: A similar fate for the latest ex-boyfriend of Kim Kardashian as I saw for McNabb—that he wouldn’t be terrible, but that he’d have trouble living up to the considerable hype around him (arguably true).
And he wasn’t terrible. He finished with 191.5 points, good for No. 15 on the WR list, and put up some incredible games early in the season. The problem was that his starting quarterback broke a collarbone in week seven, and that Kitna guy we talked about earlier was trying to heave the ball in his general direction. He got the job done, which is about what I thought would happen, but if he’d had the luxury of a legitimate QB for an entire season, he would have been pretty good.
Result: Only by luck did I end up seeming even a little bit correct.

Any Receivers From The Pittsburgh Steelers
I predicted: That the six-game suspension of Fatty McFatterson (or as you know him, Ben Roethlisberger—my wife is from Seattle, so we don’t really have flattering nicknames for the Steelers in our home) and the porous offensive line would mean few opportunities for the Pittsburgh wideouts (sadly, not true at all).
Hines Ward had some really good games, putting up 129.5 points, good for No. 44 on the list, in the process. But the breakout star was Mike Wallace (I still get a mental image of the guy from 60 Minutes running around on the field), who racked up 222 points and finished as the No. 7 receiver last year.
Result: In the same way that loyalty to a team can get you into fantasy trouble, hating a team too much can also blind you to the reality of the situation. Not that I’ll ever be a fan of Mr. McFatterson.

Tight End
Greg Olsen, Chicago Bears
I predicted: His quarterback would have trouble distinguishing his team from his opponents (to the tune of 16 interceptions) and the offensive system of Mike Martz would prevent the tight end from seeing much of the ball (Greg Olsen, meet Roland Williams).
Olsen had his good weeks (14.5 points against the Packers in week three) and his bad weeks (zeroes in weeks five and six, and only half a point each in weeks 13, 14 and 16), but the bad definitely outweighed the good. He didn’t produce more than 4.5 points in any week after week 12, and when you’re trying to make your league’s playoffs, that is incredibly frustrating.
Result: Correct, and I didn’t even have to drag Ernie Conwell into it.
* * *
I hope you enjoyed breaking down last year’s successes and failures with me, and I hope we all learned something about fantasy football. Namely, that nobody really knows what’s going to happen, so the best thing you can do is watch the games, read the analysis and come up with your own opinions on what you think gives you the best chance to win.
And if you want one more opinion, here’s a short list of players I would like on my team this year and players who I want to avoid.

Players I want—QB: Michael Vick, Josh Freeman; RB: Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, LeGarrette Blount, Daniel Thomas, Tim Hightower; WR: Calvin Johnson, Vincent Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Danny Amendola, Jacoby Ford; TE: Antonio Gates (enough to spend a third round pick), Jimmy Graham, Brandon Pettigrew, Visanthe Shiancoe.

Players I’ll try to avoid—QB: Matt Schaub, Jay Cutler, David Garrard, Kyle Orton; RB: Chris Johnson, Frank Gore, Ryan Mathews, anyone on the Panthers, anyone on the Patriots; WR: Dez Bryant, Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Lloyd, Steve Johnson, Brandon Marshall; TE: Owen Daniels, Marcedes Lewis, Zach Miller, Tony Gonzalez.

If you agree or disagree and you’d like to tell me why, send me an e-mail to sports@valleycenter.com anytime and I’d be happy to discuss your thoughts on the matter.
And like I told you last year—take this advice, go forth, and dominate your league.
Or wonder whether or not I gave you a bunch of false leads just to throw off any of the other owners in my league who might be reading this column. Maybe I’m giving good advice, or maybe I’m watching out for my own interests. I will let you decide.

I Kid You Not--fantasty football draft strategy

Should you grab quarterback Michael Vick with your first pick? Depends on your strategy...

You’ve enjoyed your summer.
You’ve eaten your hot dogs at family picnics, you’ve gone to the beach, and you’ve even found the time to avoid doing anything resembling hard work.
But now that August is here again, it’s time to shift our collective minds back into gear to tackle the really important things once again.
And obviously, that begins with preparing for your fantasy football draft.
In years past, I’ve shared my thoughts about sleepers and snoozers—or if you prefer layman’s terms, guys you want and guys you don’t.
This year, in part because of the recently-resolved NFL lockout, and in even larger part because of the aforementioned summer plans of eating hot dogs and avoiding hard work, I’m not going to do that.
Instead, I’ve decided to help you tackle your overall draft strategy. In the end, it kind of doesn’t matter what players you have—so much of the game is luck, plus you can easily go to about 84 different places online to get “expert” advice, and part of what makes fantasy football fun is rooting for the guys you like, so go ahead and draft the guys you like—so instead of talking about specific players, let’s look at some options for how your team could look once the drafting is over.
It never hurts to have a plan, especially when you come to the sudden realization that you’re the only guy (or girl!) in your league who doesn’t have one, and you start re-thinking that decision to draft T.J. Houshmandzadeh last year (even though you just couldn’t resist quoting that ESPN commercial).
All slight variations aside, there are five directions you can take your fantasy football team on draft day, and it pretty much comes down to what you do with your first three or four picks. Let’s dive in and see what we can discover.

Quarterback
The strategy here is to grab a quarterback with your first pick, no matter who else is on the board. If you’re picking in the top five, you can land Michael Vick and simultaneously bookmark WebMD so you know exactly how serious every tweaked ankle really is. If you’re outside the top five, you can hope Aaron Rodgers didn’t just have the best season of his life last year, or that Drew Brees plays better than his haircut makes him look.
Pros: My favorite sportswriter, Bill Simmons, once said that having a crappy fantasy QB is like driving a four-cylinder car. Yeah, it works, but it just isn’t a whole lot of fun. And if you’re into having fun with your fantasy football team, then you should probably help the rest of us convince that one guy in every league who takes it way too seriously. You know—the guy who writes about fantasy football for the local newspaper every summer. Oh wait…
Plus, if you look at the statistics (always dangerous, I know), you can see that the difference between a great QB and a mediocre QB is bigger than the difference between the top players at other positions and their mediocre counterparts. If math is your thing, this might be something to pay attention to.
Cons: If your fun, six-cylinder QB tweaks an ankle, bruises a shoulder, gets his head slammed into the turf, or just flat-out stinks like a redneck barbecue, you’re stuck with a nightmare all season. A lot of pressure gets packed into that one pick.
Plus, you almost have to tag-team this strategy with the “make sure you get the best tight end available” strategy so you can maximize the whole point-differential thing. And unless you want to draft a tight end with your third pick, that might be difficult.

Running Back
A strategy as old as the game itself—running backs win fantasy football championships. The strategy is to grab a stud RB who can carry your team to the title.
Pros: Running backs get the ball consistently, which is what you want in fantasy sports. There’s nothing worse than suffering through a feast-or-famine-that’s-mostly-famine season with a streaky QB or WR threatening to obliterate your lineup every Sunday. Well, that redneck barbecue might be worse, but let’s just move on.
Cons: The days of Earl Campbell, Eric Dickerson, Emmitt Smith, Curtis Martin, Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, Jamal Lewis and LaDanian Tomlinson are well behind us, no matter what Tomlinson fans try to tell you this year. Coaches these days worry about running backs like they’re used cars—nobody wants to have to get a new one when the old one breaks down. So a stud running back gets maybe 80% of his team’s carries, while a decent running back gets maybe 70% of the action. Not to mention the trend of more passing in the game than ever before.

Wide Receivers
The NFL is a passing league! Run-heavy offenses died out with Curly Lambeau and the leather helmet! Airing it out not only wins games, it keeps the crowds coming back! Exclamation points are great for emphasizing a point!
This strategy involves going after wide receivers with your first two picks, then worrying about everything else. If you have a mid- to late-round pick, this could be intriguing.
Pros: You lock up studs at one position, hopefully avoiding injuries and essentially forgetting about those two slots in your lineup for the rest of the year. Not bad for those who like some degree of peace of mind.
Plus, there are always players who make surprise leaps to fantasy relevance every year, so when you lose your first three matchups, you have the waiver priority to snatch up this year’s steals.
Cons: The rest of your team is awful, and you find yourself asking questions like, “Who sees more third-down action for the Jacksonville Jaguars, Deji Karim or Greg Jones?” And that, I assure you, is not a place you want to be in December.

One Of Each
The thought here is to spread the wealth—grab a running back, then a quarterback, then a receiver, then a tight end, then running backs and receivers until the last two rounds.
Pros: It evens out your team a little bit and doesn’t leave big gaps. This is a nice strategy for people who like folding laundry and alphabetizing bookshelves in their spare time.
Cons: You can’t cover all the gaps, and if you follow a pattern too closely, you miss out on chances to snag a sleeper that other owners either forget about or don’t have room for.

Best Available
This is almost an actual NFL draft strategy, in that NFL owners throw around the “he was the best guy available” excuse when they don’t know what they’re doing and just grab the first name they find under the empty pizza boxes in the draft room.
Pros: You’re getting the best player available at any given moment. It never hurts to have good players.
Cons: You might end up with seven good wide receivers and a headache trying to figure out which ones to start each week. And when the later rounds start whizzing by, it gets harder and harder to know who the best player actually is, so there’s kind of a lot of guesswork that I don’t think any of us is qualified to do.
* * *
Hopefully this helps you make up your mind about how to strategize for your fantasy football draft this year.
Because if you don’t spend the time thinking about this stuff now, then you’ll probably end up actually getting something productive done, and we definitely can’t have that.
And be sure to share your thoughts with me by leaving a comment or sending me an e-mail to sports@valleycenter.com.

I Kid You Not: Fantasy Football Sleepers & Snoozers 2010

You love football, I love football, and in less than a month, we’ll all be happy campers once again.
But for those of us who can’t get enough of the NFL with just the weekly games, there is fantasy football.
Although some may call it a fake sport, or just another way for nerds to crunch numbers, you can’t argue with the stats. Depending on where you get your stats, anywhere from 23 to 29 million Americans play fantasy football every year, and if you’re one of them, you know why.
The thrill of competition, the feeling of being involved with the players on your team, the simple joy of a T.J. Houshmandzadeh touchdown catch to help you beat Larry from accounting—it’s all just a part of the wonderful package.
If you’ve played fantasy football before, then you know how many opinions are out there masquerading as facts, telling you why a certain player is doomed to fail this season, or why you should avoid a certain player because it’s a surefire guarantee that he’s not going to make it through the season healthy.
If you’re new to fantasy football, it can seem a little overwhelming. But if you’re a veteran of the fantasy world, then you know how to take in all this raw data and form your own educated opinions, which are hopefully turned into beneficial decisions.
If you’re really good, you might start to express your own opinions to those around you. And since I’m one of those guys, I’m going to tell you who I think are some players with solid potential (sleepers) and who are guys I wouldn’t really want on my team (snoozers) for this season.
If you want hard data on these guys, there is no shortage of places to go to find what you’re looking for. The following is nothing more than one man’s opinion. Granted, one incredibly awesome, gifted, never-finished-worse-than-third-in-at-least-one-of-my-fantasy-leagues-since-I-started-playing kind of guy. But still—opinions they are.
With no further ado, let’s look at some players to snag and some players to avoid in fantasy football this year.

Sleepers

QB: Jason Campbell, Oakland Raiders
I know—the Raiders, you ask? Let’s just say that no team is going to look good when Jamarcus “That’s No Moon, That’s Our Quarterback” Russell...
...is overthrowing your receivers by 15 yards. Campbell is an accurate passer who brings confidence to an offense with some talent, but was mired in the cold, slippery grip of incompetence the past few seasons. They’re not going to win the Super Bowl, but Campbell will put up solid numbers all season.

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
We saw some glimpses of Stafford’s ability and toughness last season, when he led the Lions to a last-minute victory over the Browns with an outstanding two-minute drive, shaking off a shoulder injury to re-enter on the final play and throw a touchdown pass that won the game. He’s still got his primary target, Calvin Johnson, as well as some new, potentially exciting talent on offense. I’m not saying he’s going to win the MVP, but if you still need a quarterback and he’s there in the late rounds, you could do a whole lot worse (see Jackson, Tarvaris).

RB: Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins
I’m a little biased here since I’m a Dolphins fan, but Brown has been a top-three fantasy running back at some point in each of the past four seasons. The reason he’s so commonly overlooked is because he was only able to finish one of the past four seasons, due to various injuries. Now, I can’t claim to know what will happen in the future. Well, I can claim that, but most of you would probably not believe me. Anyway, there’s a chance he could get hurt. But there’s a chance any player could get hurt, and Brown’s injuries were kind of fluky: a broken hand from a collision with an opponent’s helmet (2006), a torn ACL in his knee while making a tackle on an interception (2007), and a Lisfranc fracture in his right foot (2009). The ACL tear is a bit concerning, but he’s now gone two full seasons without any problems there, so why is there so much doubt that he will be healthy this year, any more than any other player? For fantasy purposes, you look at the potential cost/benefit analysis. Potential reward, you draft a top-ten fantasy running back (maybe better) with a fourth-round pick. Potential cost, he gets hurt and your fourth-round pick goes down the drain. To me, that’s not a huge risk. I mean, who else are you going to grab in that spot, Justin Forsett (who isn’t even the starter) or Jerome Harrison (of the Cleveland Browns… let me repeat that—THE CLEVELAND BROWNS)? Why not take a chance on a guy who has the talent and the opportunity to be an elite back?

Cadillac Williams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This one is for the late rounds, because I don’t really think anybody from the Tampa offense will be that great. But despite the seeming committee in the Buccaneer backfield, Caddy showed some promise at the end of last season after coming back from a torn patellar tendon the year before. He was outstanding in his rookie season (2005) and is just now finally coming all the way back from that injury. Instead of stocking up on kickers, I’d be willing to give Cadillac a test drive (note: I’m pretty sure this is the only time anyone has ever used that joke. Ever. Pretty sure.)

WR: Chris Chambers, Kansas City Chiefs
Look, there isn’t much to get excited about when you look at the Chiefs this year. Until last year, their quarterback made a living watching other (or rather, more talented) quarterbacks win football games—Matt Cassel was the backup to Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart at USC, then spent four seasons as Tom Brady’s designated baseball cap holder in New England. Their running backs either have some pretty good potential (Jamaal Charles and Dexter McCluster) or might be running out of gas (Thomas Jones). The offensive line isn’t great either, but word is that it might be getting better—emphasis on “might.”
Their receivers aren’t much to look at either, but one thing we learned from the last half of 2009 was that Cassel somehow developed a rapport with Chambers, the number two wideout on the depth chart this year since Dwayne Bowe is pretty solidly established as the primary target.
Now I’m not saying that the Chiefs’ passing game is going to be electric, but I am saying that there seemed to be a connection between Cassel and Chambers last season, especially down the stretch—you know, when fantasy football match-ups are kind of important. If he’s still around in the later rounds, he’s probably going to be a good deal.

Josh Morgan, San Francisco 49ers
Pretty much, what I said about Chambers, apply that to Morgan. Also, Morgan is younger and his quarterback actually played in college.

Derrick Mason, Baltimore Ravens
Everybody’s all ga-ga for Anquan Boldin, and with good reason. But in my opinion, all his arrival does is open up more opportunities for Mason, who is as sure-handed as any number two receiver out there. The Ravens have a pretty exciting offense this year, and the way Ray Rice runs, you know there will be open spots for Mason in the secondary. Again, I don’t think he’s good enough to be your number one WR or anything, but if he’s there in the sixth or seventh round, I think you’ll do fine with him.

TE: Jermichael Finley, Green Bay Packers
Everybody thinks that Aaron Rodgers is going to have a monster year, and I agree. Finley is young, big, fast, and has great hands. He’s going to gobble up touchdown after touchdown this season.

Snoozers

QB: Donovan McNabb, Washington Redskins
McNabb is a tough place to start with the snoozers, because I don’t mean to imply that he’s going to be worthless. I just don’t think he’s going to put up the kinds of consistent fantasy numbers that he did last year with the Eagles. It’s a different system, he’s got new receivers to work with, and the ‘Skins actually run the ball from time to time. McNabb will end up with a decent season, I’d wager, but probably nothing significantly higher than Jason Campbell’s season totals for Washington last year. Basically, McNabb isn’t going to be as good as he was last year, so I would just be careful how high you rank him.

Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals
Like Rodgers, a lot of people think Palmer will have a big year. He’s got the Ochocinco/Owens circus to ringlead, a (supposedly) talented rookie tight end, and a healthy Cedric Benson carrying the load. It looks really good on paper.
But they don’t play games on paper, probably because that would be a waste of paper, and it’s much easier to just play the game on your computer like the rest of us. Anyway, this is purely a gut thing, but I don’t think Palmer will be all that valuable come season’s end. He’ll have his days, I’m sure, but he plays some tough defenses (Pittsburgh and Baltimore twice each, New England, Atlanta, San Diego and the New York Jets among them) and he hasn’t really been all that great the past few seasons. I don’t think that another narcissist wide receiver in the locker room is going to help his demeanor much.

RB: C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills
He looks like he’s got lots of potential right now—good speed, an offense committed to the run, and the other two potential starting running backs (Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch) have picked up some minor injuries in the preseason.
But one of my new favorite words for this season—“meritocracy”—comes into play here. Jackson led the team in rushing last season, and Lynch is still a big, physical back who can pick up tough yards. Spiller may have talent, but in the NFL, the ball goes to the guys who earn it. Until Jackson and Lynch completely blow it out there, I feel like Spiller is doomed to a few chances here and there, at best.

Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts
He’s getting older, he plays on a team that doesn’t run very much, and he’s got a younger guy (Donald Brown) behind him who, according to the “insiders” who seem to know these things, is going to get more chances this year. Even if Addai gets the bulk of the Colts’ carries, he hasn’t really done much with them the past few years.

WR: Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati Bengals
Read what I wrote about Carson Palmer again. Then add to it the fact that Ochocinco A) isn’t getting any younger (or faster), B) clearly doesn’t like sharing the spotlight, and C) gets easily frustrated when things aren’t going well. The Bengals play at New England to open the season, then host the Ravens in week two. I can’t imagine them winning either of those games, much less both. It could be a rough year in that locker room.

Miles Austin, Dallas Cowboys
This one is similar to McNabb in that I’m not saying Austin will be terrible—I just think that all the hype has gotten a little out of hand. The Cowboys played well and Austin got a lot of points last year, but defenses kind of know he’s coming this year. Chances are he’ll get taken really early, and chances are, the guy (or girl) who drafted him in your league will end up just a little disappointed.

Any Receivers From The Pittsburgh Steelers
(like Mike Wallace...)
(oops, wrong Mike Wallace...um...here we go...)
Ben Roethlisberger is out for six weeks, and Byron Leftwich is no longer the same dude that got carried by his offensive linemen to run the two-minute drill at Marshall. Super Bowl MVP Santonio Holmes is gone, Hines Ward is still good but getting old, and I’m not entirely convinced that Mike Wallace (no, not the guy from 60 Minutes) can be considered elite. It’s not like they’ll be terrible, but for where they’re going in mock drafts right now, there are better guys out there.

TE: Greg Olsen, Chicago Bears
His quarterback likes throwing it to the other team, he’s got a much older guy pushing him for the starting spot (Desmond Clark), and his new offensive coordinator doesn’t really do much to get the tight end involved anyway. Yeah, you remember the Rams from the late 1990s, with Mike Martz as the offensive coordinator? The guy who helped make Kurt Warner, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt and Marshall Faulk into superstars? Can you name the tight end from the 1999 Rams? It was this guy. In 16 games, he had all of 25 receptions. Not exactly lighting up the fantasy scoreboard.
— — —
There you have it, the official I Kid You Not sleepers and snoozers. Take this advice, go forth, and dominate your league.
Or wonder whether or not I gave you a bunch of false leads just to throw off any of the other owners in my league who might be reading this column. Maybe I’m giving good advice, or maybe I’m watching out for my own interests. I will let you decide.

I Kid You Not: Football Is King

I looked my wife in the eye one day this week and confessed to her that I have a problem.
“It’s only August,” I explained. “And I already can’t wait for football to start.”
As she sympathetically (sarcastically?) assured me that this month will fly right by, I reflected on the fact that there are very few things that can get my insides all squirrelly a full month in advance. Granted, I love Thanksgiving and Christmas as much as the next guy, but once you get past the age of 12, there really isn’t much to get excited about. Except being able to stuff your face, but you can really do that any other day of the year. I mean, this is America, after all.
In the realm of sports, there really isn’t anything that I get this excited about. I grew up playing baseball, and I still get to relive my glory days (those being my MVP season for the City Rec League Astros in the summer of 1993, complete with the accompanying soundtrack of You’re The Best Around by Joe Esposito) on the slow-pitch softball field. I loved watching the World Cup this summer, I really enjoy hockey season (when I can actually find a game on TV, which is rare), and going to see the Padres play is always a good time (especially this year, when they’re actually going to win the division even though they’re going to fold like every other year).
But none of these things really get me pumped up the way that football season does. And I’m not just talking about the NFL, either, although that is the main source of my anticipatory glee. I talked with Valley Center varsity football coach Rob Gilster this week about the Jaguars’ upcoming season, and I have to say, I’m really looking forward to Friday nights this fall. (Be sure to check out the 2010 VCHS football preview to your left).
So I started wondering, what about football season sets it apart from all these other things I enjoy? And why do so many people seem to feel the same way?
I think there are three things about football that make September one of the most anticipated months of the year. And since I like you so much, I’m going to share these three things with you right now. You’re welcome.

1. The Ideal Format
The most basic level of enjoyment in the world of sports comes from simply being able to watch a game. Whether you like the teams or not, whether you fully understand the strategy or not, or if you just want to spend an enjoyable evening with friends, sports are a lot of fun. So the more games there are, the better, right?
Wrong. The Padres play 180 games every year, and last season, they averaged under 24,000 fans in attendance per game. That’s slightly over half the capacity of Petco Park. Ouch. And that’s not saying anything against the Padres, it just proves the point that a Thursday night game in April against the Milwaukee Brewers (attendance: 16,696 for the game on April 29 of this year, by the way) just can’t help but be met with a bit of a collective yawn. Honestly, once anything starts to reach a level of oversaturation, it loses some of its appeal.
In contrast, the Chargers haven’t had a regular-season game blacked out (NFL rules stipulate that a game won’t be shown on local television if the team hasn’t sold all the tickets for that game) since 2004, and there are plenty of news articles written about how the Chargers aren’t exactly the best in the league when it comes to selling out games. And even though NFL tickets are exponentially more expensive than MLB tickets, the Chargers sell out their home games because fans know there are only eight of them every season (plus a few playoff games, if they get there). When something cool only happens eight times a year, it’s a lot more likely that you’ll plunk down the $50+ just to go see it. Even if the team is lame, it’s still better than snoozing through another Jon Garland-vs.-Adam Wainwright one-run shoot-out (from May 25 of this year, attendance: 18,236).
Which brings up another point—football is just more fun to watch. The play happens, there’s a little break for some replays, then another play happens. It’s not stare-off-into-space-while-contemplating-the-cosmos boring like baseball can be, but it’s not continuous action like hockey and soccer. You get to see stuff happening, but you also get little pauses to allow the analysts to help you understand what just happened. As far as fan-friendly sports go, football has the ideal setup.
That format even extends to the way the season plays out. Because each team only plays one game each week, fans only have to block out one day a week to watch their favorite team. If you really want to devoutly follow the Toronto Maple Leafs or the Cleveland Cavaliers (although I can’t imagine why) or the Texas Rangers, you pretty much can’t have a life during the season. Not that anyone who is a diehard Cavs fan can claim to have much of a life anyway, but at least a committed football fan has the luxury of six days a week to do other things. Granted, most of us football fans use those six days to dissect every play that happened on Sunday (or Monday night), but still, it’s nice to know we could have a life.

2. The Popularity
I’ve admitted before that the way my sports fanship has come about is because of my sports hatred. Basically, the teams I like are the rivals of the teams I don’t like. I like the Miami Dolphins because I grew up in Western New York and was sick of all the Buffalo Bills fans. I like the Mets and the Red Sox in large part because I can’t stand the Yankees.
A lot of the reason why I don’t like certain teams is because they’re overly popular. I still can’t talk about Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas or Andre Reed without getting a look of snarling anger on my face, because when I was growing up, all the Buffalo-area news stations would just gush about the K-Gun offense and Marv Levy and Cornelius “The Biscuit” Bennett and the amazing (read: cheating) comeback against the Houston Oilers in January of 1993 and all the rest.
So why would I advocate the benefits of enjoying something that’s popular?
I’m glad you asked. Really, it comes down to accessibility and the potential for enjoyment that comes from being able to get into something easily.
And football is easy to find. If you want to know who will be the starting running back for the Seattle Seahawks this season, there are plenty of experts whose job is to watch the Seattle Seahawks and tell the world which tailback figures to get the most touches this season. If you want to find out how to spot an outside linebacker blitz, I know of at least four different shows on television that feature experts explaining these “X’s and O’s” kind of details. If you want to know which NFL player Kim Kardashian is currently exploiting dating, it doesn’t take more than a couple clicks of the mouse.
In short, it’s not hard to go from casual fan to diehard with very little personal effort. My wife is a good example—back before we got married, I started inviting her over to watch football with me on Sundays, and before the end of the season, she knew more about some teams than I did. OK that’s probably a bit of an exaggeration, but not really by a lot. She knows her stuff, and she’s looking forward to the season almost as much as I am.

3. Fantasy Football
The final threshold for the transition from casual fan to diehard, fantasy football is almost a sport in and of itself. It falls into the previous two categories we’ve discussed (it only happens once a week and it’s popular) which makes it an ideal way for football fans to add another layer of enjoyment to the game.
I’ve played fantasy football for the past seven years now, and I have to say, I’m probably more excited about my various FFL (Fantasy Football League) drafts than I am about the NFL’s opening weekend.
If you still don’t know what fantasy football is (apparently those people still exist), it’s basically a league of people who take turns picking the various NFL players to form their own teams. Each player earns a certain number of points based on how he performed in his NFL game that week (as in, if Tony Romo throws a touchdown pass, he gets six points for his FFL “owners”) and the teams in each FFL compete against each other using these point totals to determine a winner each week. There are different formats and different scoring rules depending on the league, but the basics are the same.
What fantasy football does is give football fans an excuse to be interested in players and teams that they may not pay much attention to otherwise. Last season, I had Washington Redskins receiver Santana Moss in one of my leagues. Would I pay much attention to the Redskins if I didn’t have Moss? Probably not. But because I counted on him as my number two receiver, I had to find out if he was getting the ball as often as he should, and if he was getting chances to score touchdowns, and if he had any injury concerns. I learned more about a player, his team, and other players at his position because I was invested in my fantasy league.
And before you wonder just how big of a nerd I am, I have to say that all the investigation I did took very little time. Fantasy football is pretty universally free these days, and especially if you go with a site like ESPN.com, you get outstanding updates, live scoring and all the latest tools right at your fingertips. We literally had a seven-year-old owner in one of my leagues last year, and he did pretty well. He made it to the playoffs, if I remember correctly, and that’s not exactly a given.
I’m planning on writing a more robust fantasy football column in the next few weeks, complete with a few of my sleepers and snoozers, so if you’re at all interested in fantasy football, check back with us each week and be sure to write in to sports@valleycenter.com to share your thoughts on the subject.
In the meantime, I’m going to go curl up with a recording of Tom Jackson breaking down the zone blocking scheme in minute detail.
And I’m going to count the minutes until September.