I Kid You Not: A new way to look at Fantasy Football

By DAN KIDDER

The world is changing.

I feel it in the water. I feel it in the earth. I smell it in the air. Much that once was is lost, for none now live who remember it.

Galadriel, the elfin queen who narrates the opening lines of the fantasy movie trilogy The Lord Of The Rings, probably didn’t know much about fantasy football.

But she did leave behind a convenient excuse for me to nerd out with a Tolkien reference to begin this year’s examination of what the fantasy football season holds.

It begins, as Frodo’s adventure with the One Ring does, with the simple realization that things are different than they used to be.

For so many years (I know, it’s weird to think that fantasy football has been around so long), conventional wisdom in drafting your fantasy football team looked like this: grab a stud running back first, pick up a couple good receivers along the way, find a decent quarterback when nobody else jumps out at you, and let the rest just kind of happen however.

So much of fantasy football strategy has been predicated on the core value of playing it safe.

Safe is minimizing risk. Safe is a running back that gets you 75 yards and maybe a touchdown. Safe is drafting a receiver whose name elicits a “Hmm, ok, not bad,” reaction from your fellow owners. Safe is the fantasy football equivalent of “slow and steady wins the race.”

And safe is also incredibly boring.

You know what playing it safe got me in my three fantasy football leagues last season? Exactly eight wins and five losses for each of the three teams, leading to a pair of fifth-place finishes and a lone second-place spot (each of which is a 12-team league, by the way).

I had some great players, too. I had Calvin Johnson on all three teams. I minimized risk by drafting players such as Roddy White, Ahmad Bradshaw and Felix Jones. I was conservative on the waiver wire, not willing to spring for Cam Newton, Victor Cruz, Antonio Brown or any of the other breakout stars.

Basically, I was playing by an outdated set of rules.

Now, if you’re a serious fantasy footballer, you’ve probably already read a few articles here and there about how important it is to get a good quarterback, and about how deep the pool is for solid wide receivers, and potentially even about how important the tight end position is becoming.

For those of you who aren’t serious fantasy footballers, and just in case any of you reading this are in any leagues with me…Um, you totally don’t need a good quarterback. I would say that that is the least important position in fantasy football right now. You should get your kicker squared away as soon as possible.

Back to the serious owners. Let’s assume that we’re all starting from the same point; that is, that we all know at least a little bit about the direction that fantasy football is heading.

And now let’s throw that all out the window.

Here’s why fantasy football in 2012 is going to be different than any other FFL experience you’ve ever had: because fantasy football in 2011 was so crazy that it should have come with a tin foil hat.

Last year was so unpredictable, in large part because of the residual effect leftover from last summer’s lockout, that fantasy football owners this year are going to make one of two assumptions.

On one side are those who will assume that last season is the new norm. That rookie quarterbacks are going to light up defenses with 400 passing yards all the time. That it’s so easy to be an elite NFL wide receiver that they dig up guys from the local salsa dancing club to take the gig. That 5-foot-5 running backs are destined for greatness.

On the other hand, you will see the old fuddy-duddies (easily recognized by their out-dated terminology, like “fuddy-duddy”) who think that 2011 was an anomaly. That the league is, at its heart, a running league. That defense wins championships. That it’s better to take a proven, if unspectacular, veteran quarterback over a young, talented, but raw, rookie. That the best way to compare the talent of NFL players is to look at the miniscule differences in their pre-draft combine performances (“What? This guy only ran a 4.45 in the 40? There’s no way he can be as good as the guy who ran the 4.37!).

The reality is that it’ll probably be somewhere in the middle.

But how you, as a fantasy football owner, respond to the craziness is what will make or break your team this year.

With that in mind, I have a few ideas that I’m going to implement into my draft (and waiver) strategy for 2012. Feel free to come along for the journey to find out if I know what I’m talking about, or if I should dig my tin foil hat out of the crawl space where I keep every page 13 from Variety magazine since 1974. Not that that’s weird or anything.

Take A Chance On Me
With many thanks to 70s Swedish pop group Abba, I feel that there are a lot of potential fantasy studs waiting for you to take a chance on them.

Last year, it was Cam Newton (he was drafted in the last round in my east coast league), Matthew Stafford, Jimmy Graham, and a whole cast of unexpected stars.

Who will it be this year? It’s pretty obvious that you’re not going to find out by looking through the various rankings that exist online—if it were that easy to spot, we would have seen Newton, Stafford and Graham all getting drafted in the first couple of rounds last year.

This year, because my old strategy of only grabbing proven guys landed me square in the middle of the pack, I’ve decided to take some more chances.

Now, don’t go crazy, like the folks in the first group we just talked about. I’m not at all suggesting that you grab Robert Griffin III when Aaron Rodgers is still on the board.

I am saying, however, that young, unknown guys are arriving in the NFL with so much more pro-level preparation behind them than we’ve ever seen, so it’s not as big of a stretch to think that a guy like Justin Blackmon or Brian Quick might become the next big thing.

And when all else fails, a good place to start is by checking out everybody else’s team in your league last season. Find the guys that drove you crazy and target them in your draft this year. Nothing is more frustrating in FFL than checking your upcoming opponent’s roster and seeing a guy who keeps dropping 25 points each week. Your goal this year should be to get as many of those “Oh crap, I have to face HIM?” guys to frustrate your opponents.

So, if we come back to our somewhere-in-between mindset from a few minutes ago, that means that it is still a good idea to play it safe—in the early rounds of your draft. Everybody you’ll be picking in the first two rounds will (barring some catastrophe, like blowing out a knee or having some dude named John Skelton throwing the ball to you) be a solid performer.

But once the “safe” guys are gone (and it happens sooner and sooner every year), don’t be afraid to stretch a little bit in hopes of landing a breakout star.

Which brings us to the next idea…

I Choose You!
Be decisive. Know what you’re looking for. When it comes down to two or three guys on your draft board, know who you like…And most importantly, know why you like him.

Seasoned FFL veterans know what the draft is like. You get into the fifth round, the combination of greasy pizza and strawberry Fanta is wreaking havoc on your internal organs, the guys (and girls!) in your draft room (either in person or in the chat box online) just won’t let you forget about that one time that you drafted Chad Pennington to be your starting quarterback (That was like seven years ago, guys!!!), the owner ahead of you just grabbed the guy you wanted and now you’re staring at a ticking clock with unfocused eyes (or maybe that’s just pizza grease on your glasses).

Things can get out of control really quickly, and before you know it, you hear your disembodied voice say things like, “How is Kurt Warner still available?!? I’ll take him!”

And if you’re new to fantasy football and possibly in one of my leagues this year…Um, I think you should totally draft Kurt Warner. Forget what I said about not needing an elite quarterback. He will totally be one of the top scorers this year. Either him or Brett Favre.

Back to the veteran fantasy football owners. We know all about things like “upside” and we know what it’s like to see the right guy in the right situation.

So when it comes down to crunch time (both in the draft and on the waiver wire), don’t be afraid to go with your gut. If your gut tells you that Torrey Smith is going to have a better second season than Denarius Moore, grab him. If you feel it in your bones that Jared Cook is going to be the break-out tight end of the year, pick him up. If you can just sense that this is finally the year that Beanie Wells stays healthy all season, well…It’s your team, after all.

Which is another seamless transition into our final talking point…

Whatever, I Do What I Want
It’s your team. Draft the guys you want.

Seriously, when it comes down to so many minute stats (“How many third down targets does he get when his team is trailing by more than 17 points in the third quarter?”), one pick is just as likely to pan out as another. And at the end of the season, ideally, you’ll want to have enjoyed the ride.

I loved having Calvin Johnson on all three of my teams last year, and not just because he evidently has hydrogen slush rocket fuel flowing through his veins. I drafted him because I loved how he’s not the typical look-at-me-no-seriously-I’ll-hold-my-breath-until-I-pass-out-if-you-don’t-look-now kind of wide receiver. He makes big play after big play, and then he acts all cool, like it’s no big deal, just another Sunday afternoon at the park. I love athletes like that. And because I paid extra attention to the Lions last year, he’s become one of my favorite players in the league.

Fantasy football is supposed to be fun. So make it fun. Don’t worry about it if it’s too soon to grab Michael Vick in the third round. If you want him, take him (although I suggest bookmarking some awful online skateboard crash videos so you can watch them and try to assure yourself that, “At least my quarterback isn’t hurt THAT bad…”)

Basically, have a plan for who you want on your team. Then go get them. Don’t sweat it if drafting Philip Rivers in the third round seems like a bit of a stretch. If you want Philip Rivers (and more importantly, if you don’t want Philip Rivers to get mad at you like you’re Jay Cutler on the opposing sideline because you didn’t draft him and he got picked by somebody else), then take him in the third round.

When the season is over, the hopeful goal of it all is first to have had a good time, and second, to have put together a team that gave you a chance to win the league championship.

And if you’re going to accomplish both, you’re going to need to approach the season just a little differently than everybody else.

Just don’t blame me if things go wrong. I’m still hoping that Priest Holmes is still there when I make my first pick.

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Now that you know a little bit more about my strategy, here are some very brief lists of guys I’m hoping I get on my teams this year, and some guys that I’m going to avoid. There are many different factors for why I want some guys and don’t want others (including the fact that I loathe the New England Patriots), so don’t look at this purely as a “take this guy instead of that guy” kind of list. I’d say it’s more of a “do a little research on your own to find out why I like this guy so much and stop trying to mooch off of me” kind of list.

Guys I Want

QB: Drew Brees (he was on two of the three teams that won my leagues last year); Robert Griffin III and/or Andrew Luck (if I can’t get Brees in the first round, and they didn’t draft these guys to hand off all season).

RB: LeSean McCoy (if I’m lucky enough to get him), Matt Forte (he finally got paid), Steven Jackson (his new coach loves a good running game), Darren Sproles (his feet are just so fast!), Kevin Smith (can we just have Jahvid Best retire now so his brain still works in ten years?), Donald Brown (OK, so Luck will have to hand off sometimes).

WR: Calvin Johnson (duh), Brandon Marshall (back with his old pal Jay Cutler), Antonio Brown (so I’m one year late to the party, I can admit it), Eric Decker (this sounds bad, but Peyton Manning seems to like throwing a football to kind of slow white dudes), Pierre Garcon (RGIII seems to like throwing a football to a dude with a French name), Justin Blackmon (he’s kind of huge).

TE: Jimmy Graham (duh), Brandon Pettigrew (sooner or later, all 11 guys on defense will start covering Calvin Johnson), Coby Fleener (played with Luck in college, and he’s kind of huge), Kyle Rudolph (“You can’t teach six-foot-six,” as I’ve heard on ESPN approximately 4,387 times already this year).

Guys I Don’t Really Want

QB: Michael Vick (would have been on the other list, but he hurt his ribs on the very night I wrote this, so, no thank you), any QB ranked between Drew Brees and RGIII (because they’re all basically the same, whether it’s Tony Romo, Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisjkegiflihtsvxzberger or Matt Schaub—not bad, but not awesome either).

RB: Maurice Jones-Drew (extended contract holdouts + pro athletes + elite competition = try again next year), Michael Turner (yawn), Darren McFadden (you spend the whole season waiting for the other shoe to drop—which it inevitably does, and McFadden sprains something stepping on it), Ryan Mathews (see McFadden, Darren—also, it’s hard to trust a guy when he doesn’t have enough “T’s” in his last name. What are you trying to hide, Ryan MaThews?!?), Trent Richardson (rookie + Cleveland Browns = no thank you), Frank Gore (too old, too many other guys in the backfield), anyone on the Patriots or Redskins (because you should go buy a lottery ticket if you think you can predict what will happen there week to week).

WR: Andre Johnson (he’d be great at flag football, until he sprained his flag-carrying muscle), Greg Jennings (the Packers spread it around too much, and when a dude named Jordy puts up better numbers, it might be time to reexamine your role on the team), Mike Wallace (see Jones-Drew, Maurice), Steve Johnson (Ryan Fitzpatrick is probably terrible, and you don’t want to find that out for 17 straight weeks), anyone on the Eagles (not only is their starting QB an injury risk, it seems like all the Philly receivers are running around on tendons and ligaments made of chewy licorice), Malcolm Floyd (he’s not Vincent Jackson, no matter how much you want him to be).

TE: Jermichael Finley (has had lots of opportunities, but hasn’t done much in terms of fantasy stats), Jacob Tamme (a former teammate of Peyton Manning does not an all-pro make), Kellen Winslow (unless they start allowing tight ends to ride motorcycles on the field, and then only if games are played exclusively in Cleveland-area parking lots).

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There you have it, a good chunk of information to get you started with your fantasy football season.

If you have any further thoughts, comments, suggestions, additions, disagreements, or any other form of neurological activity associated with fantasy football that you would like to share with us, please don’t hesitate to write to us at sports@valleycenter.com anytime.

And if you want any Tolkien-inspired FFL team name suggestions, all you have to do is ask and hope that The Leaves Of Lorien hasn’t already been taken.