But for those of us who can’t get enough of the NFL with just the weekly games, there is fantasy football.
Although some may call it a fake sport, or just another way for nerds to crunch numbers, you can’t argue with the stats. Depending on where you get your stats, anywhere from 23 to 29 million Americans play fantasy football every year, and if you’re one of them, you know why.
The thrill of competition, the feeling of being involved with the players on your team, the simple joy of a T.J. Houshmandzadeh touchdown catch to help you beat Larry from accounting—it’s all just a part of the wonderful package.
If you’ve played fantasy football before, then you know how many opinions are out there masquerading as facts, telling you why a certain player is doomed to fail this season, or why you should avoid a certain player because it’s a surefire guarantee that he’s not going to make it through the season healthy.If you’re new to fantasy football, it can seem a little overwhelming. But if you’re a veteran of the fantasy world, then you know how to take in all this raw data and form your own educated opinions, which are hopefully turned into beneficial decisions.
If you’re really good, you might start to express your own opinions to those around you. And since I’m one of those guys, I’m going to tell you who I think are some players with solid potential (sleepers) and who are guys I wouldn’t really want on my team (snoozers) for this season.
If you want hard data on these guys, there is no shortage of places to go to find what you’re looking for. The following is nothing more than one man’s opinion. Granted, one incredibly awesome, gifted, never-finished-worse-than-third-in-at-least-one-of-my-fantasy-leagues-since-I-started-playing kind of guy. But still—opinions they are.
With no further ado, let’s look at some players to snag and some players to avoid in fantasy football this year.
Sleepers
QB: Jason Campbell, Oakland Raiders
I know—the Raiders, you ask? Let’s just say that no team is going to look good when Jamarcus “That’s No Moon, That’s Our Quarterback” Russell...
...is overthrowing your receivers by 15 yards. Campbell is an accurate passer who brings confidence to an offense with some talent, but was mired in the cold, slippery grip of incompetence the past few seasons. They’re not going to win the Super Bowl, but Campbell will put up solid numbers all season.Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
We saw some glimpses of Stafford’s ability and toughness last season, when he led the Lions to a last-minute victory over the Browns with an outstanding two-minute drive, shaking off a shoulder injury to re-enter on the final play and throw a touchdown pass that won the game. He’s still got his primary target, Calvin Johnson, as well as some new, potentially exciting talent on offense. I’m not saying he’s going to win the MVP, but if you still need a quarterback and he’s there in the late rounds, you could do a whole lot worse (see Jackson, Tarvaris).RB: Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins
I’m a little biased here since I’m a Dolphins fan, but Brown has been a top-three fantasy running back at some point in each of the past four seasons. The reason he’s so commonly overlooked is because he was only able to finish one of the past four seasons, due to various injuries. Now, I can’t claim to know what will happen in the future. Well, I can claim that, but most of you would probably not believe me. Anyway, there’s a chance he could get hurt. But there’s a chance any player could get hurt, and Brown’s injuries were kind of fluky: a broken hand from a collision with an opponent’s helmet (2006), a torn ACL in his knee while making a tackle on an interception (2007), and a Lisfranc fracture in his right foot (2009). The ACL tear is a bit concerning, but he’s now gone two full seasons without any problems there, so why is there so much doubt that he will be healthy this year, any more than any other player? For fantasy purposes, you look at the potential cost/benefit analysis. Potential reward, you draft a top-ten fantasy running back (maybe better) with a fourth-round pick. Potential cost, he gets hurt and your fourth-round pick goes down the drain. To me, that’s not a huge risk. I mean, who else are you going to grab in that spot, Justin Forsett (who isn’t even the starter) or Jerome Harrison (of the Cleveland Browns… let me repeat that—THE CLEVELAND BROWNS)? Why not take a chance on a guy who has the talent and the opportunity to be an elite back?Cadillac Williams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This one is for the late rounds, because I don’t really think anybody from the Tampa offense will be that great. But despite the seeming committee in the Buccaneer backfield, Caddy showed some promise at the end of last season after coming back from a torn patellar tendon the year before. He was outstanding in his rookie season (2005) and is just now finally coming all the way back from that injury. Instead of stocking up on kickers, I’d be willing to give Cadillac a test drive (note: I’m pretty sure this is the only time anyone has ever used that joke. Ever. Pretty sure.)WR: Chris Chambers, Kansas City Chiefs
Look, there isn’t much to get excited about when you look at the Chiefs this year. Until last year, their quarterback made a living watching other (or rather, more talented) quarterbacks win football games—Matt Cassel was the backup to Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart at USC, then spent four seasons as Tom Brady’s designated baseball cap holder in New England. Their running backs either have some pretty good potential (Jamaal Charles and Dexter McCluster) or might be running out of gas (Thomas Jones). The offensive line isn’t great either, but word is that it might be getting better—emphasis on “might.”Their receivers aren’t much to look at either, but one thing we learned from the last half of 2009 was that Cassel somehow developed a rapport with Chambers, the number two wideout on the depth chart this year since Dwayne Bowe is pretty solidly established as the primary target.
Now I’m not saying that the Chiefs’ passing game is going to be electric, but I am saying that there seemed to be a connection between Cassel and Chambers last season, especially down the stretch—you know, when fantasy football match-ups are kind of important. If he’s still around in the later rounds, he’s probably going to be a good deal.
Josh Morgan, San Francisco 49ers
Pretty much, what I said about Chambers, apply that to Morgan. Also, Morgan is younger and his quarterback actually played in college.Derrick Mason, Baltimore Ravens
Everybody’s all ga-ga for Anquan Boldin, and with good reason. But in my opinion, all his arrival does is open up more opportunities for Mason, who is as sure-handed as any number two receiver out there. The Ravens have a pretty exciting offense this year, and the way Ray Rice runs, you know there will be open spots for Mason in the secondary. Again, I don’t think he’s good enough to be your number one WR or anything, but if he’s there in the sixth or seventh round, I think you’ll do fine with him.TE: Jermichael Finley, Green Bay Packers
Everybody thinks that Aaron Rodgers is going to have a monster year, and I agree. Finley is young, big, fast, and has great hands. He’s going to gobble up touchdown after touchdown this season.Snoozers
QB: Donovan McNabb, Washington Redskins
McNabb is a tough place to start with the snoozers, because I don’t mean to imply that he’s going to be worthless. I just don’t think he’s going to put up the kinds of consistent fantasy numbers that he did last year with the Eagles. It’s a different system, he’s got new receivers to work with, and the ‘Skins actually run the ball from time to time. McNabb will end up with a decent season, I’d wager, but probably nothing significantly higher than Jason Campbell’s season totals for Washington last year. Basically, McNabb isn’t going to be as good as he was last year, so I would just be careful how high you rank him.Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals
Like Rodgers, a lot of people think Palmer will have a big year. He’s got the Ochocinco/Owens circus to ringlead, a (supposedly) talented rookie tight end, and a healthy Cedric Benson carrying the load. It looks really good on paper.But they don’t play games on paper, probably because that would be a waste of paper, and it’s much easier to just play the game on your computer like the rest of us. Anyway, this is purely a gut thing, but I don’t think Palmer will be all that valuable come season’s end. He’ll have his days, I’m sure, but he plays some tough defenses (Pittsburgh and Baltimore twice each, New England, Atlanta, San Diego and the New York Jets among them) and he hasn’t really been all that great the past few seasons. I don’t think that another narcissist wide receiver in the locker room is going to help his demeanor much.
RB: C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills
He looks like he’s got lots of potential right now—good speed, an offense committed to the run, and the other two potential starting running backs (Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch) have picked up some minor injuries in the preseason.But one of my new favorite words for this season—“meritocracy”—comes into play here. Jackson led the team in rushing last season, and Lynch is still a big, physical back who can pick up tough yards. Spiller may have talent, but in the NFL, the ball goes to the guys who earn it. Until Jackson and Lynch completely blow it out there, I feel like Spiller is doomed to a few chances here and there, at best.
Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts
He’s getting older, he plays on a team that doesn’t run very much, and he’s got a younger guy (Donald Brown) behind him who, according to the “insiders” who seem to know these things, is going to get more chances this year. Even if Addai gets the bulk of the Colts’ carries, he hasn’t really done much with them the past few years.WR: Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati Bengals
Read what I wrote about Carson Palmer again. Then add to it the fact that Ochocinco A) isn’t getting any younger (or faster), B) clearly doesn’t like sharing the spotlight, and C) gets easily frustrated when things aren’t going well. The Bengals play at New England to open the season, then host the Ravens in week two. I can’t imagine them winning either of those games, much less both. It could be a rough year in that locker room.Miles Austin, Dallas Cowboys
This one is similar to McNabb in that I’m not saying Austin will be terrible—I just think that all the hype has gotten a little out of hand. The Cowboys played well and Austin got a lot of points last year, but defenses kind of know he’s coming this year. Chances are he’ll get taken really early, and chances are, the guy (or girl) who drafted him in your league will end up just a little disappointed.Any Receivers From The Pittsburgh Steelers
(like Mike Wallace...)
(oops, wrong Mike Wallace...um...here we go...)
Ben Roethlisberger is out for six weeks, and Byron Leftwich is no longer the same dude that got carried by his offensive linemen to run the two-minute drill at Marshall. Super Bowl MVP Santonio Holmes is gone, Hines Ward is still good but getting old, and I’m not entirely convinced that Mike Wallace (no, not the guy from 60 Minutes) can be considered elite. It’s not like they’ll be terrible, but for where they’re going in mock drafts right now, there are better guys out there.TE: Greg Olsen, Chicago Bears
His quarterback likes throwing it to the other team, he’s got a much older guy pushing him for the starting spot (Desmond Clark), and his new offensive coordinator doesn’t really do much to get the tight end involved anyway. Yeah, you remember the Rams from the late 1990s, with Mike Martz as the offensive coordinator? The guy who helped make Kurt Warner, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt and Marshall Faulk into superstars? Can you name the tight end from the 1999 Rams? It was this guy. In 16 games, he had all of 25 receptions. Not exactly lighting up the fantasy scoreboard.— — —
There you have it, the official I Kid You Not sleepers and snoozers. Take this advice, go forth, and dominate your league.
Or wonder whether or not I gave you a bunch of false leads just to throw off any of the other owners in my league who might be reading this column. Maybe I’m giving good advice, or maybe I’m watching out for my own interests. I will let you decide.
No comments:
Post a Comment